Parliament Question: Impact of Super El-Nino

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 4088 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 12TH AUGUST, 2026 IMPACT OF SUPER EL-NINO

4088. SHRI BALWANT BASWANT WANKHADE:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

(a) the precautionary and preparedness measures adopted by the Government to manage the possible impact of the predicted Super El-Nino on country’s climate;

(b) whether the Ministry of Earth Sciences is working in collaboration with other Ministries to ensure farmers and the rural economy are not seriously affected in case of a weakened monsoon due to the El-Nino and if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor; and

(c) the details of the Government's plan of action if the country face a serious drought situation due to El-Nino? ANSWER THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

(a) There is no official classification or definition of a "Super El Nino" by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) or the India Meteorological Department

(IMD), under the Ministry. El Nino events are classified based on Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong. IMD has predicted the development of El Nino conditions during the 2026 southwest monsoon season. El Nino conditions were weak during June 2026 and intensified to moderate levels in July 2026. It is likely to be moderate in August and moderate to strong category by September. El Nino is likely to strengthen further during the October–December 2026 season and may reach a very strong category. However, its exact intensity and impacts over the Indian region depend on the evolution of coupled ocean–atmosphere conditions, of which El Nino is one factor. IMD continuously monitors the evolution of oceanic and atmospheric conditions and issues regular seasonal and monthly forecasts and advisories.

IMD issued a below-normal rainfall forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season. In its First Stage Long Range Forecast, issued on 13 April 2026, IMD predicted seasonal rainfall to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±5%. Subsequently, in the Second Stage Long Range Forecast, IMD revised the seasonal rainfall forecast to 90% of the LPA with a model error of ±4%.(b)-(c) India Meteorological Department continuously monitors the evolution of El Nino and other climate drivers and issues regular seasonal/monthly forecasts, extended- range forecasts, and weather advisories to the Central and State Governments and other stakeholders. IMD provides regular update on monsoon rainfall at daily interval and El Nino condition at monthly interval. IMD also provides rainfall at district and block levels to all stakeholders. The forecasts and warnings are shared through multiple communication channels for use by disaster management authorities, State Governments, district administrations, and other stakeholders to support preparedness and response measures. The warnings are also disseminated to various stakeholders, including the Ministry of Home Affairs, National Disaster Management Authority, State Disaster Management Authorities, Deputy Commissioners, District Magistrates, Central Government departments and ministries and the media. In addition, IMD regularly participates in meeting conducted by Prime Minister's Office (PMO), Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MoAFW), providing relevant meteorological inputs to support planning and decision-making. Under crop weather watch of MoAFW every week, IMD provides past rainfall and forecast of rainfall for next two weeks.

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